Somalia’s Lone Hope: Why Donald Trump Could Recognize Somaliland as a Sovereign State
The Unlikely Ally
For years, Somaliland has been a self-declared republic, existing in a state of limbo between recognition and non-recognition by the international community. However, with the arrival of President Donald Trump in the White House, many Somalis believe that their luck may be about to change. Influential Republicans, including Congressman Scott Perry, have introduced bills proposing formal US recognition for Somaliland, while conservative organizations such as The Heritage Foundation have published roadmaps, like “Project 2025”, which mention Somaliland as a potential recipient of US recognition.
This is not just a case of wishful thinking on the part of Somalis. There are real reasons to believe that Trump may be open to recognizing Somaliland as a sovereign state. For one thing, his administration has already started to change its stance on Somaliland, moving away from its Mogadishu-focused approach known as the “one-track” Somalia policy. The US has also been training members of Somalia’s elite Danab brigade to take on Islamist militants in Somalia, which could be seen as a precursor to recognizing Somaliland’s independence.
But why would Trump want to recognize Somaliland? One reason is that it would allow the US to establish a foothold in the region, potentially disrupting China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The Red Sea port of Berbera, whether you see it as part of Somaliland or Somalia, has much to offer as an alternative. Additionally, recognizing Somaliland could be seen as a way for Trump to boost his reputation as a disruptor, bringing attention and praise from those who support him.
The African Union’s Warning
However, not everyone is convinced that recognizing Somaliland would be a good idea. The African Union and other global powers believe that territorial integrity is paramount, and that recognizing Somaliland could set off a chain reaction with separatists across the world demanding recognition for their territories. Somalia’s Foreign Minister, Ali Mohamed Omar, has warned that recognizing Somaliland would not only contravene Somalia’s sovereignty but also destabilize the region by setting a dangerous precedent.
Omar is not alone in his concerns. Many analysts believe that recognizing Somaliland could have far-reaching consequences, potentially leading to the break-up of other African countries with disputed territories. The US has accused China of interfering with its activities in Djibouti by shining lasers into the eyes of its air force pilots and is keen to move elsewhere. It also wants to disrupt China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which is taking over much of Africa.
The Economic Benefits
Despite the concerns about stability and precedent, there are those who believe that recognizing Somaliland could bring significant economic benefits to both the US and Somaliland itself. A US-based Somaliland diplomat said: “It depends how they sell it to him. They have to make it attractive; they have to seduce him.” Whether he means it or not, bringing up the explosive issue of recognition would likely suit Trump the disruptor. It would certainly bring him attention and he could boast about being first.
US academic Ken Menkhaus said: “It is very likely we will see significant shifts in US policy towards Somaliland and Somalia,” adding that Mr Trump has a deep suspicion of foreign aid, is sceptical about state-building and is a neo-isolationist. Menkhaus believes that Trump’s policies are driven by a desire to reduce the US role in international affairs, rather than any particular interest in Somaliland or Somalia.
The Future Implications
If Trump were to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state, it could have significant implications for the region and beyond. For one thing, it would be a major blow to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, potentially disrupting its plans to establish itself as a dominant player in Africa. It could also lead to increased instability in the region, as other separatist groups demand recognition for their own territories.
However, it is also possible that recognizing Somaliland could have positive consequences, such as increasing stability and security in the region. By providing a clear status to Somaliland, the US would be able to establish stronger diplomatic and economic ties with the territory, potentially leading to increased trade and investment.
In conclusion, while there are many reasons to believe that Trump may recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state, it is by no means certain. The African Union and other global powers will likely oppose any move to recognize Somaliland’s independence, citing concerns about stability and precedent. However, if Trump were to make the move, it could have significant implications for the region and beyond.
Source: www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-44911113
As we wait with bated breath to see what will happen next in this unfolding drama, one thing is certain: the future of Somaliland and its relationship with the US hangs precariously in the balance. Will Trump’s desire for disruption and chaos lead him to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state? Only time will tell.
Leo
I’m writing this from the trenches, having spent years working on development projects in Somaliland. The idea that recognizing Somaliland’s sovereignty would be a solution to our problems is a cruel joke. We’re not just fighting for independence, we’re fighting for basic human rights and dignity. And what do we get from Trump? A token recognition that would only serve to further destabilize the region and give him a fleeting sense of power.
The real question is: at what cost? Would recognizing Somaliland’s sovereignty be worth risking the stability of neighboring countries, not to mention our own? I fear for the future of Africa if this becomes a precedent. And as for Trump’s motivations? Please, let’s not pretend he cares about anyone but himself and his ego.
We need real solutions, not just a headline-grabbing recognition that would only serve to further our suffering. Where are the economic benefits for Somaliland itself, beyond just serving as a pawn in Trump’s game of geopolitics? We deserve better than to be used as pawns in a larger chess game.